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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Pete Carroll
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 13:00 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

LV
29.5%
KC
70.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.149 vs Geno Smith (LV) -0.026 EPA/dropback
  • KC defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 20
–
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

LV

Brock Bowers TE Doubtful Knee
Jakobi Meyers WR Questionable Knee
Alex Bachman WR Questionable Ankle

KC

Josh Simmons T Out Not injury related - personal matter

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 0
–
KC 31

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:02 TD KC (6:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-29-K.Hunt was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-99-T.Booker, Face Mask, 8 yards, enforced between downs. LV 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 09:20 TD KC (9:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 5-M.Brown for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – KC 13
  • Q2 00:13 TD KC (:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – KC 20
  • Q3 09:05 TD KC (9:05) 10-I.Pacheco left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. LV 0 – KC 27
  • Q3 02:41 FG KC (2:41) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. LV 0 – KC 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 39%

    (11:52) 6-A.Cole punts 38 yards to KC 8, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (3:07) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to KC 5, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 16 for 11 yards (51-M.Koonce).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (15:00) 29-K.Hunt left guard to KC 43 for 3 yards (98-M.Crosby).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (6:44) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to KC 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 81-N.Remigio MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 9. 81-N.Remigio to KC 6 for -3 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:09) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to KC 27, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds. PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at KC 27.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (2:41) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (:12) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 10-D.Thornton.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 60%

    (13:23) 14-M.Araiza punts 30 yards to LV 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-54-L.Chenal.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 20 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:54) 6-A.Cole punts 63 yards to KC 25, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 81-N.Remigio to KC 32 for 7 yards (59-J.Rhattigan).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 29%

    (7:15) 14-M.Araiza punts 36 yards to LV 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 5 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (4:52) (Shotgun) 24-B.Smith up the middle to LV 4 for 1 yard (45-D.White).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 87 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:44) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 43, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 13 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to LV 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman to LV 26 for 6 yards (21-J.Hicks; 54-L.Chenal).