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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 5

Kansas City Chiefs 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(4:52) (Shotgun) 24-B.Smith up the middle to LV 4 for 1 yard (45-D.White).

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.33 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 5, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model