Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to KC 27, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds. PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at KC 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model