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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 20

Kansas City Chiefs 28 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.14 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 20, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model