Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 20 at the 88

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 31

(11:54) 6-A.Cole punts 63 yards to KC 25, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 81-N.Remigio to KC 32 for 7 yards (59-J.Rhattigan).

The Three Options

GO -3.30 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.40 EP
73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 88, worth -5.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model