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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 29-K.Hunt left guard to KC 43 for 3 yards (98-M.Crosby).

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.32 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model