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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 50

Kansas City Chiefs 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 14-M.Araiza punts 36 yards to LV 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.68 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 50, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP