CAR @ NYJ — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales

Home

New York Jets

HC Aaron Glenn

Sunday 2025-10-19 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

CAR

51.6%

NYJ

48.4%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NYJ offense: -0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
CAR offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
NYJ defense: +0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
CAR defense: +0.151 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
QB edge to NYJ: Justin Fields (NYJ) -0.008 vs Bryce Young (CAR) -0.016 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CAR 22

–

NYJ 21

Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

CAR

Patrick Jones II LB Out Back

Taylor Moton T Questionable Elbow

Austin Corbett C Questionable Knee

Tershawn Wharton DT Questionable Toe

Damien Lewis G Questionable Shoulder

Jalen Coker WR Questionable Quadricep

NYJ

Michael Carter II CB Out Concussion

Garrett Wilson WR Doubtful Knee

Cam Jones LB Doubtful Hip

Qwan'tez Stiggers CB Doubtful Hip

Ja'Markis Weston LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 13

–

NYJ 6

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 05:45 FG CAR (5:45) 10-R.Fitzgerald 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 3 – NYJ 0
Q2 11:06 FG NYJ (11:06) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. CAR 3 – NYJ 3
Q2 01:18 TD CAR (1:18) 9-B.Young pass short left to 17-X.Legette for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – NYJ 3
Q3 10:43 FG CAR (10:43) 10-R.Fitzgerald 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 13 – NYJ 3
Q4 06:30 FG NYJ (6:30) 6-N.Folk 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. CAR 13 – NYJ 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 33

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 70%

(12:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Reynolds.
Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 12

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

(5:45) 10-R.Fitzgerald 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(2:54) 14-A.McNamara punts 50 yards to CAR 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-K.Nwangwu.
Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 51

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 72% p(FG) 24%

(14:56) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 49 for no gain (9-W.McDonald; 53-M.Walker).
Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 16

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%

(11:06) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 20%

(8:59) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to NYJ 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(7:48) 14-A.McNamara punts 47 yards to CAR 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 48 for 11 yards (54-J.Weston; 89-J.Ruckert).
Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(6:19) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to NYJ 8, Center-44-J.Jansen. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 13 for 5 yards (87-B.Tremayne). PENALTY on NYJ-29-J.Brownlee, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at NYJ 8.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 89

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP

p(convert) 58%

(3:56) 14-A.McNamara punts 56 yards to CAR 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at CAR 48 for 15 yards (27-M.Moore).
Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 45

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 38%

(2:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to NYJ 34 for 11 yards (29-J.Brownlee).
Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 40

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 71% p(FG) 52%

(13:32) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle left end pushed ob at NYJ 28 for 12 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 11

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

(10:43) 10-R.Fitzgerald 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 36%

(7:16) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to CAR 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-53-M.Walker.
Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 38

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 71% p(FG) 57%

(11:22) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to NYJ 34 for 4 yards (95-Q.Williams).
Q4 CAR 4th & 19 at the 43

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 44%

(9:00) 6-S.Martin punts 28 yards to NYJ 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 29

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 79%

(6:30) 6-N.Folk 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Q4 CAR 4th & 11 at the 66 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(4:51) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to NYJ 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 28 for 14 yards (0-J.Sanders).
Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 52 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP

p(convert) 62% p(FG) 22%

(2:56) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to NYJ 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 86 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(1:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 52 yards to CAR 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at CAR 43 for 9 yards (47-A.Beck).