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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 13 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 6-S.Martin punts 28 yards to NYJ 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.17 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model