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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 40

Carolina Panthers 10 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(13:32) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle left end pushed ob at NYJ 28 for 12 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.42 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model