4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 49 for no gain (9-W.McDonald; 53-M.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.54 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 51, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.93 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model