4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 57

New York Jets 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 14-A.McNamara punts 50 yards to CAR 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-K.Nwangwu.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.96 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model