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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 16

New York Jets 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.17 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP