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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 53

Carolina Panthers 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to NYJ 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.86 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 53, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -2.04 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model