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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 84

New York Jets 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 14-A.McNamara punts 47 yards to CAR 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 48 for 11 yards (54-J.Weston; 89-J.Ruckert).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.28 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model