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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 13 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to NYJ 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.79 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP