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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 29

New York Jets 3 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 6-N.Folk 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.24 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP