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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 89

New York Jets 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 14-A.McNamara punts 56 yards to CAR 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at CAR 48 for 15 yards (27-M.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.61 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 89, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP