4th & Data
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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 20:20 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

ATL
48.2%
SF
51.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 25
–
SF 26
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

ATL

Ray-Ray McCloud WR Out Not injury related - other
Jordan Fuller S Out Knee
Clark Phillips III CB Out Triceps
Billy Bowman Jr. S Out Hamstring
Jalon Walker LB Out Groin
Jake Matthews T Questionable Ankle
Darnell Mooney WR Questionable Hamstring
Feleipe Franks TE Questionable Calf
Ta'Quon Graham DE Questionable Calf

SF

Fred Warner LB Out Ankle
Yetur Gross-Matos DE Out Knee
Brock Purdy QB Out Toe
Ricky Pearsall WR Out Knee
Kevin Givens DT Questionable Pectoral
Renardo Green CB Questionable Neck
Upton Stout CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 10
–
SF 20

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:59 FG ATL (12:59) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 3 – SF 0
  • Q2 01:50 TD SF (1:50) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – SF 6
  • Q2 00:43 FG SF (:43) 18-E.Pineiro 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. ATL 3 – SF 10
  • Q3 10:14 FG SF (10:14) 18-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. ATL 3 – SF 13
  • Q3 06:34 TD ATL (6:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-B.Robinson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – SF 13
  • Q4 02:31 TD SF (2:31) 23-C.McCaffrey right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – SF 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (13:22) 13-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to SF 8, Center-49-L.McCullough. 9-S.Moore to SF 16 for 8 yards (42-J.Woods).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 53%

    (8:41) 7-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%

    (12:59) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 37%

    (8:05) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 66%

    (:43) 18-E.Pineiro 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 11 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 87%

    (10:14) 18-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (4:28) 7-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to ATL 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 33 for 13 yards (33-S.Neal; 89-L.Farrell).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 14 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%

    (1:06) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to SF 4, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-4-K.Hodge.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (12:58) 7-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 17 for 5 yards (81-M.Turner).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 70%

    (8:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (26-C.Lucas). ** Injury Update: ATL-25-T.Allgeier has returned to the game.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London.