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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 37

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(:43) 18-E.Pineiro 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.50 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model