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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 25

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 18-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.18 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model