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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 13-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to SF 8, Center-49-L.McCullough. 9-S.Moore to SF 16 for 8 yards (42-J.Woods).

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.13 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP