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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 48

Atlanta Falcons 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.94 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model