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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 7-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to ATL 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 33 for 13 yards (33-S.Neal; 89-L.Farrell).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model