Value Picks — Week 1

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

SF @ SEA Disagrees with the line

Model: SEA 59.7% Line: SF 57.3% 17.0-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ NYJ Disagrees with the line

Model: NYJ 57.2% Line: PIT 58.8% 16.0-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ IND Disagrees with the line

Model: MIA 59.1% Line: IND 54.4% 13.5-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ ATL

Model: TB 65.8% Line: TB 54.4% 11.4-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ JAX

Model: JAX 52.6% Line: JAX 63.1% 10.5-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ LA

Model: LA 69.7% Line: LA 60.2% 9.5-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ PHI

Model: PHI 81.4% Line: PHI 73.6% 7.8-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ CHI Disagrees with the line

Model: CHI 52.1% Line: MIN 54.4% 6.5-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ BUF Disagrees with the line

Model: BUF 51.9% Line: BAL 54.4% 6.3-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ DEN

Model: DEN 79.8% Line: DEN 73.6% 6.2-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ WAS

Model: WAS 72.9% Line: WAS 67.2% 5.7-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ LAC

Model: KC 53.2% Line: KC 58.8% 5.6-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ NE

Model: NE 51.8% Line: NE 57.3% 5.5-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ NO

Model: ARI 71.1% Line: ARI 67.2% 3.9-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ CLE

Model: CIN 68.4% Line: CIN 65.8% 2.6-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ GB

Model: GB 54.3% Line: GB 54.4% 0.1-pt gap vs. the line