Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- MIN offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- QB edge to CHI: Caleb Williams (CHI) -0.052 vs J.J. McCarthy (MIN) -0.161 EPA/dropback
- MIN defense: +0.020 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- CHI defense: +0.138 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 1
MIN
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:12 TD CHI (7:12) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – CHI 6
- Q2 12:51 FG MIN (12:51) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 3 – CHI 7
- Q2 00:28 FG CHI (:28) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. MIN 3 – CHI 10
- Q2 00:11 FG MIN (:11) 16-W.Reichard 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 6 – CHI 10
- Q3 13:03 TD CHI (13:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short left intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 26-N.Wright at CHI 26. 26-N.Wright for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – CHI 16
- Q4 12:18 TD MIN (12:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – CHI 17
- Q4 09:52 TD MIN (9:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 33-A.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CHI-26-N.Wright has returned to the game. MIN 18 – CHI 17
- Q4 02:59 TD MIN (2:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 26 – CHI 17
- Q4 02:05 TD CHI (2:05) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 27 – CHI 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 58%
(12:58) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to CHI 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 39 for 22 yards (55-E.Wilson; 42-A.DePaola).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(5:04) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to CHI 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 25 for 7 yards (15-D.Turner; 37-T.Thomas).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(1:04) 19-T.Taylor punts 39 yards to MIN 19, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%
(12:51) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 88%
(8:59) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 2-D.Moore.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EPp(convert) 74%
(6:58) 17-R.Wright punts 31 yards to CHI 35, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(6:03) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to MIN 24 for 9 yards (92-D.Hardy; 33-J.Jones).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIN 4th & 18 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(4:39) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to CHI 33, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 41 for 8 yards (13-T.Felton).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 88%
(:28) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(14:41) 19-T.Taylor punts 47 yards to MIN 31, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to CHI 49 for 20 yards (36-J.Owens).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIN 4th & 20 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(10:18) 17-R.Wright punts 52 yards to CHI 30, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 36 for 6 yards (13-T.Felton). PENALTY on CHI-43-C.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 30.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(7:27) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to MIN 6, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to MIN 23 for 17 yards (22-E.Hicks).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 65%
(5:53) 17-R.Wright punts 45 yards to CHI 24, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 18 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 76%
(15:00) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 19 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(10:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 56 yards to MIN 28, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to 50 for 22 yards (22-E.Hicks; 46-S.Daly).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(7:38) 19-T.Taylor punts 25 yards to MIN 32, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-46-S.Daly.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 69 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(:16) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to CHI 20, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
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