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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 57

Chicago Bears 17 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 19-T.Taylor punts 25 yards to MIN 32, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-46-S.Daly.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.78 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model