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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 24

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(:28) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.74 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model