Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 84

Chicago Bears 17 – Minnesota Vikings 12

(10:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 56 yards to MIN 28, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to 50 for 22 yards (22-E.Hicks; 46-S.Daly).

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 84, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model