Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 63

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3

(6:03) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to MIN 24 for 9 yards (92-D.Hardy; 33-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.35 EP
62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 63, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model