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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to CHI 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 39 for 22 yards (55-E.Wilson; 42-A.DePaola).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 26, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP