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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Chicago Bears
4th & 3 at the 24
Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3
What Actually Happened
(8:59) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 2-D.Moore.
The Three Options
GO
+1.69 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.55 EP
- 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP
KICK
+1.25 EP
- 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
- 12% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT
-0.28 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
