Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 20 at the 82

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 17-R.Wright punts 52 yards to CHI 30, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 36 for 6 yards (13-T.Felton). PENALTY on CHI-43-C.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.93 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.93 EP
71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 82, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model