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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 14

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.35 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP