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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 32

Chicago Bears 17 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.10 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model