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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 58

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 19-T.Taylor punts 39 yards to MIN 19, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.83 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model