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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

DET
49.0%
GB
51.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.191 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • GB defense: -0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Jordan Love (GB) +0.137 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.299 EPA/dropback
  • DET defense: +0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 25
–
GB 26
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

DET

Jamarco Jones T Out Ankle
Trevor Nowaske LB Out Elbow
Sione Vaki RB Out Hamstring

GB

Zayne Anderson S Questionable Knee
Nate Hobbs CB Questionable Knee
Micah Parsons LB Questionable Back
Dontayvion Wicks WR Questionable Calf
Jayden Reed WR Questionable Foot
Savion Williams WR Questionable Hamstring
Barryn Sorrell DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 13
–
GB 27

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:31 TD GB (9:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – GB 6
  • Q1 04:02 FG GB (4:02) 17-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. DET 0 – GB 10
  • Q2 09:30 FG DET (9:30) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 3 – GB 10
  • Q2 08:39 TD GB (8:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 11-J.Reed for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 3 – GB 16
  • Q3 09:43 FG DET (9:43) 39-J.Bates 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 6 – GB 17
  • Q4 08:00 TD GB (8:00) (No Huddle) 8-J.Jacobs left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – GB 23
  • Q4 04:25 FG GB (4:25) 17-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. DET 6 – GB 27
  • Q4 01:00 TD DET (1:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 18-I.TeSlaa. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-I.TeSlaa for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 12 – GB 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 14 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:01) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to GB 37, Center-49-H.Hatten. 0-M.Golden ran ob at GB 48 for 11 yards (41-A.Pittman).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 95%

    (4:02) 17-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

    (9:30) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 80%

    (2:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to GB 19 for 11 yards (29-X.McKinney). Penalty on GB-20-J.Bullard, Illegal Contact, declined.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 76%

    (:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 65 yards to DET 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-K.Raymond to DET 18 for 5 yards (31-N.Niemann).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (9:43) 39-J.Bates 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (7:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to DET 7, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-K.Raymond to DET 21 for 14 yards (30-C.Brooks; 55-K.Enagbare).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 12 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:24) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to GB 24, Center-49-H.Hatten. 11-J.Reed ran ob at GB 38 for 14 yards (13-C.Reynolds). PENALTY on GB-20-J.Bullard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 25.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 42%

    (:03) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to DET 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 17 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:51) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to GB 44, Center-49-H.Hatten. 11-J.Reed to DET 36 for 20 yards (30-K.Dorsey).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 97%

    (9:11) 10-J.Love up the middle to DET 8 for 2 yards (46-J.Campbell).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64%

    (6:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 27 for -8 yards (95-D.Wyatt).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 92%

    (4:25) 17-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:19) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 1-J.Williams to DET 45 for 5 yards (7-Q.Walker).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 18-I.TeSlaa. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-I.TeSlaa for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.