Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 68

Detroit Lions 6 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to GB 24, Center-49-H.Hatten. 11-J.Reed ran ob at GB 38 for 14 yards (13-C.Reynolds). PENALTY on GB-20-J.Bullard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.21 EP
66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model