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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 9

Detroit Lions 3 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 39-J.Bates 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.45 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model