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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 60

Detroit Lions 6 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(3:19) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 1-J.Williams to DET 45 for 5 yards (7-Q.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.60 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model