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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 65

Detroit Lions 6 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(6:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 27 for -8 yards (95-D.Wyatt).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.81 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 23, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model