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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 17 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 65 yards to DET 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-K.Raymond to DET 18 for 5 yards (31-N.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.19 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 78, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 35, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model