4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 12

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.36 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP