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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -5.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

CIN
68.1%
CLE
31.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.209 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Joe Flacco (CLE) -0.017 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.131 EPA/dropback
  • CIN defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.027 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 26
–
CLE 19
Projected margin: CIN by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CIN

No players on the report.

CLE

Mike Hall Jr. DT Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 17
–
CLE 16

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:37 TD CIN (7:37) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 12:44 TD CLE (12:44) 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 35-R.Sanders right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – CLE 6
  • Q2 04:21 TD CIN (4:21) 61-C.Ford and 74-J.Rivers reported in as eligible. 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 86-N.Fant for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – CLE 7
  • Q2 00:27 FG CLE (:27) 25-A.Szmyt 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CIN 14 – CLE 10
  • Q3 07:24 TD CLE (7:24) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 19-C.Tillman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 14 – CLE 16
  • Q3 02:52 FG CIN (2:52) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 17 – CLE 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 33%

    (4:11) 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 35-R.Sanders up the middle to CIN 46 for 2 yards (44-D.Knight).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (12:44) 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 35-R.Sanders right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 49%

    (9:36) 8-R.Rehkow punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to CIN 23, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-C.Jones to CIN 46 for 23 yards (31-D.McMillon).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 83%

    (:27) 25-A.Szmyt 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (5:47) 8-R.Rehkow punts 62 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-W.Wagner. 2-D.Carter to CLE 25 for 15 yards (26-T.Anderson).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 94%

    (2:52) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 57%

    (14:16) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 3-J.Jeudy.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:18) 8-R.Rehkow punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 49%

    (9:30) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 15 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%

    (2:25) 25-A.Szmyt 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 49 yards to CLE 21, Center-46-W.Wagner. 2-D.Carter to CLE 33 for 12 yards (46-W.Wagner; 34-S.Perine).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 20 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 28%

    (:30) 8-R.Rehkow punts 49 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-37-P.Jules.