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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 8-R.Rehkow punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.28 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model