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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 5 at the 39
Cleveland Browns 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 17
What Actually Happened
(14:16) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 3-J.Jeudy.
The Three Options
GO
+0.33 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.63 EP
- 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.87 EP
KICK
-0.10 EP
- 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
- 43% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT
-0.04 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
