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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 48

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 35-R.Sanders up the middle to CIN 46 for 2 yards (44-D.Knight).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.13 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model