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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 18

Cleveland Browns 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 25-A.Szmyt 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.63 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model