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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

NYG
29.3%
WAS
70.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 20
–
WAS 26
Projected margin: WAS by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

NYG

Andrew Thomas T Doubtful Foot

WAS

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 6
–
WAS 21

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:03 TD WAS (7:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – WAS 6
  • Q2 14:00 FG NYG (14:00) 9-G.Gano 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. NYG 3 – WAS 7
  • Q2 06:19 TD WAS (6:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – WAS 13
  • Q3 01:47 FG NYG (1:47) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. NYG 6 – WAS 14
  • Q4 07:16 TD WAS (7:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-D.Samuel left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – WAS 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:42) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 23 for 11 yards (35-P.Butler).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:13) 12-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to WAS 21, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Lane to WAS 30 for 9 yards (24-D.Belton). PENALTY on WAS-31-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 21.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (14:00) 9-G.Gano 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:17) 10-T.Way punts 64 yards to NYG 5, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 15 for 10 yards (57-N.Bellore).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:47) 12-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to WAS 42, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:33) 12-J.Gillan punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:28) 10-T.Way punts 31 yards to NYG 29, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-69-T.Ott.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:37) 12-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to WAS 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:12) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:43) 3-R.Wilson right guard to NYG 31 for 2 yards (92-D.Armstrong).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 14 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 66%

    (1:47) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.06 EP
    p(convert) 74% p(FG) 30%

    (14:19) 10-T.Way punts 42 yards to NYG 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 12 for 3 yards (80-C.Yankoff).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 30%

    (12:14) 12-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 99%

    (2:43) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson.