Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 69

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Giants 3

(13:17) 10-T.Way punts 64 yards to NYG 5, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 15 for 10 yards (57-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.08 EP
59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model